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Inch-Pebble Project Scheduling: Managing Concerns
September 7, 2008
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Governance Thinking - Structure of Program Management Governance
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Effects of Project Risks on Organization
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Risk Management Process
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Initiating Phase - Feasibility Study Request and Report
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Build Training Time Into The Schedule
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Powering Past the Post-PMP® Syndrome
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Definition of Crashing (In Project Management Terms)
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Project Resource Requirements
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Initiating Phase - Project Specifications Request
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Project Estimates, Why are They so Wrong? Learning from London Olympics 2012
April 26, 2008 | Author: admin | Filed under: Time Management, Activity Duration Estimate, Project Management Best Practices
Project Estimates, Why are They so Wrong? Learning from London Olympics 2012
By Ron Rosenhead
There is a lot of press space being given to the 2012 Olympics here in London – saying that the estimates for the games “has quadrupled”.
Now I am NOT going to enter into the debate as to whether the costs have increased or even by how much. However, what I will say is that we are generally really poor at estimating.
Research shows we suffer from OPB - Optimistic Planning Bias: We think we can deliver a project of 40 weeks for example in 20 weeks.
So what can you do about it? Here are a few brief ideas.
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If you are a senior manager avoid giving out end dates for projects (or even business as usual activities) until someone has worked through how long an activity will take. We have seen too many times deadlines given which are not only unachievable but completely de-motivating. Once worked out, you may well recognise that more resources (money?) will be needed.
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Spend time thinking through and discussing estimates. Sound crazy? Look at the Delphi Technique used in industry today. More realistic estimates are produced by discussing in groups the estimates for the whole project, stages or even individual tasks.
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Ask yourself how confident you are of hitting the end date or the budget, or both. During some recent project management training events we asked participants how confident they were of achieving both the end date and the budget. There were some who gave appalling figures – quite a few said 10% confident, some around the 20%-25% mark with the majority in the 50%-60% bracket. Of the 35 people we asked, I would say there were only around 5 who said they were over 80% confident. If you are not confident of hitting the end date or budget (aim for 80% level of confidence) then what are you going to do about it?
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Find out who else has done this type of project before and get estimates from them (after asking them how realistic they were).
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End of project reports – scour them for some feedback on estimates, how accurate were they?
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Think about estimating as a skill. Don’t forget that in the building trade they employ estimators!
There is no doubt the Olympic estimates issue will rumble on. Make sure that your projects do not suffer the same fate.
About Ron Rosenhead (In his own words)
I first became involved in project management quite accidentally! While working in a large organisation which was going through huge change I realised that these changes would only be successful if people delivered projects effectively. But, no one had received any training in this area!
I ran a series of workshops and saw that this was an important area - working to help organisations deliver projects on time and to budget.
I have personally trained many thousands of people to deliver projects effectively. In addition, I have spoken at conferences, coached individuals and worked with project teams. After encouragement from a couple of grateful workshop participants I wrote Deliver That Project - a practical guide to delivering projects.
Alongside this my big project is to make my company Project Agency even more successful. We work with a wide range of clients providing them with project management training alongside developing in-house project management systems to ensure a uniform approach to project delivery.
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1 person has left a comment
I liked your thoughts and approach about Estimation. I agree that estimation is a skill and we need to develop this skill to make the project successful.