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Inch-Pebble Project Scheduling: Managing Concerns
September 7, 2008
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Governance Thinking - Structure of Program Management Governance
September 6, 2008
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Effects of Project Risks on Organization
September 6, 2008
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Risk Management Process
September 6, 2008
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Initiating Phase - Feasibility Study Request and Report
September 6, 2008
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Build Training Time Into The Schedule
September 5, 2008
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Powering Past the Post-PMP® Syndrome
September 5, 2008
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Definition of Crashing (In Project Management Terms)
September 5, 2008
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Project Resource Requirements
September 5, 2008
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Initiating Phase - Project Specifications Request
September 5, 2008
Time Management and the Crystal Ball
June 4, 2008 | Author: admin | Filed under: Time Management, Project Management Best Practices
Time Management and the Crystal Ball (#4 in the series Managing the Project Time)
By Joseph Phillips
How do we ever know how long any given activity will take? For some activities, you can rely on experience. Other activities have to rely on expert judgment, historical information, and approximation. Approximation?! Yep. Consider any IT project you’ve ever managed, worked on, or heard about. Each IT project is subject to the first-time, first-use penalty. Just about every IT project is unique. Even if it’s an integrator installing the same old piece of software over and over in different environments, there are unique aspects to each environment. No two IT environments are identical. Even if it comes down to the humidity in the air, the ghosts in the machines, or the users who will crunch and crank on the software, there are always differences.
These subtle and sometimes not-so-subtle differences can drive us crazy, or inspire us to take up professional roller hockey. These unique configurations also confound best efforts to predict how long an activity will take to complete. Sometimes you think you know and other times you know that you don’t know.
And now a word from reality: That’s why estimates are called estimates. Management and customers don’t seem to get this part, do they? Have you ever given an ad hoc estimate where you pulled a duration estimate out of the sky? This is a rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate; a simple, ballpark guess that management and customers are certain to hold you to. No fun for you—just them. I encourage you to not give any ballpark estimates. If you must, add an asterisk to your verbal quote, indicating that this is an ROM estimate and that it can be way, way off—from 75% up to 125%. Otherwise, you’re stuck with the number you throw out there. Should your actuals be different from the ROM, you’ve heck to pay. Right?
Joseph Phillips is the author of five books on project management and is a, PMI Project Management Professional, a CompTIA certified Project Professional, and a Certified Technical Trainer. For more information about Project Management Training, please visit Project Seminars.
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1 person has left a comment
Joseph,
Good starting point for estimating. All point estimates are wrong. All point estimates are random numbers, drawn from an underlying probability distribution. A better way to make estimates is to specify the “most likely” value - the Modal Value, the value that occurs most often and the high and low ranges of that value. The Triangle probability distribution is best used when the actual underlying distribution is unknown. The distribution is ALWAYS asymmetric with a right skew. This way the estimate is a probabilistic estimate and confidence intervales can be discussed with the client.
“We estimate we can deliver the function you need on or before October 7th, 2008 with an 80% confidence.”
This is the basis of Monte Carlo simulation (schedule risk analysis) mandated in DID 81650. Soon PMBOK will start to speak in these terms as well, following the US DoD guidance.
Glen B. Alleman
VP, Program Planning and Controls
PMI Western Regional Director, Aerospace and Defense SIG