http://www.pmhut.com/time-management-and-the-crystal-ball Sat, 11 Feb 2012 21:59:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 http://www.pmhut.com/time-management-and-the-crystal-ball/comment-page-1#comment-703 Glen B. Alleman Fri, 06 Jun 2008 00:38:18 +0000 http://www.pmhut.com/time-management-and-the-crystal-ball#comment-703 Joseph, Good starting point for estimating. All point estimates are wrong. All point estimates are random numbers, drawn from an underlying probability distribution. A better way to make estimates is to specify the "most likely" value - the Modal Value, the value that occurs most often and the high and low ranges of that value. The Triangle probability distribution is best used when the actual underlying distribution is unknown. The distribution is ALWAYS asymmetric with a right skew. This way the estimate is a probabilistic estimate and confidence intervales can be discussed with the client. "We estimate we can deliver the function you need on or before October 7th, 2008 with an 80% confidence." This is the basis of Monte Carlo simulation (schedule risk analysis) mandated in DID 81650. Soon PMBOK will start to speak in these terms as well, following the US DoD guidance. Glen B. Alleman VP, Program Planning and Controls PMI Western Regional Director, Aerospace and Defense SIG Joseph,
Good starting point for estimating. All point estimates are wrong. All point estimates are random numbers, drawn from an underlying probability distribution. A better way to make estimates is to specify the “most likely” value - the Modal Value, the value that occurs most often and the high and low ranges of that value. The Triangle probability distribution is best used when the actual underlying distribution is unknown. The distribution is ALWAYS asymmetric with a right skew. This way the estimate is a probabilistic estimate and confidence intervales can be discussed with the client.
“We estimate we can deliver the function you need on or before October 7th, 2008 with an 80% confidence.”
This is the basis of Monte Carlo simulation (schedule risk analysis) mandated in DID 81650. Soon PMBOK will start to speak in these terms as well, following the US DoD guidance.
Glen B. Alleman
VP, Program Planning and Controls
PMI Western Regional Director, Aerospace and Defense SIG

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